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  • 当前位置:主页 > 行业应用 > 音视频及家电 > 正文

    智能音箱会是智能家居的下一个风口吗

    时间:2019-08-25 03:32 来源:未知 编辑:admin

    核心提示

    火爆的 智能音箱 真的会是一个智能家居入口吗?BAT入局智能音箱,创业者站队还是突围?除了价格战,智能音箱还能怎么卖? AI 技术应用综合集成后带来的用户使用场景会有哪些变革...

    火爆的智能音箱真的会是一个智能家居入口吗?BAT入局智能音箱,创业者站队还是突围?除了价格战,智能音箱还能怎么卖?AI技术应用综合集成后带来的用户使用场景会有哪些变革?资本市场如何看待像智能家居等前沿技术在产品中的应用?

    智能音箱会是智能家居的下一个风口吗

    7 月 31 日晚上8点半,“腾讯创业01CLUB”推出了第一期的社群内容分享活动。明势资本创始合伙人黄明明、小米生态链副总裁唐沐担任了本期的对话嘉宾,就智能音箱行业聊聊对产业的几大洞见,进行了一场资本市场和头部科技公司之间关于下一个“风口”的对话,腾讯创业01CLUB为此整理出此次对话中的几大精华观点:

    1,智能家居发展的基础是解决用户刚需。

    2,智能音箱技术突破难点为NLP(自然语言处理技术)。

    3,面对巨头竞争,通过合作才能获得突破。

    4,如果智能音箱要加屏幕,目前还需解决在设备交互方面的互斥矛盾点。

    5,扫地机器人可能是智能家居的下一个风口。

    针对这几大观点,两位对话嘉宾进行了精彩的具体的分析讲解和分享,以下为此次对话内容的整理:

    智能家居发展的基础是解决用户刚需

    黄明明:我先简单介绍明势资本在AI领域的投资逻辑和案例。

    在AI领域,我们的重点是找到核心技术的落地场景,或者能够提升行业效率的领域进行投资。我们投资的案例场景覆盖出行、法律、医疗、工业等领域。

    比如,在AI 出行领域,我们投资了易航智能和知行科技;在AI 法律方面,我们投资了思满科技和秘塔科技;在AI 医疗方面,投了智能医疗外科手术机器人研发商术康医疗;在AI 工业领域,则投了智能工厂解决方案供应商玄羽科技。

    今天我主要和小米生态链副总裁唐沐聊些智能音箱在技术和商业模式方面的探讨。

    首先是技术方面,唐总(唐沐)认为哪些底层技术的突破,推动了智能音箱这一波高速发展?目前还有哪些突出的问题是严重影响到用户体验的?比如远场的定位,本地软硬件计算的能力,多人的声场还有误唤醒,包括多轮对话的能力,哪些是核心的制约瓶颈?你认同未来智能家居的流量入口可能是智能音箱吗?

    唐沐:先说智能家居入口的问题。从2012年、2013年很多公司都在对此做尝试、设想、去做相关的产品。当时对于公司的自家产品,对外都会有这样的一个说法:在做争夺智能家居入口。兄弟不才,我当时是做了路由器,所以对外喊“路由器是未来智能家居的入口”。

    做了几年之后,我发现当时喊的凶的说自己是智能家居入口,到最后都没留下来,反而那些真的踏踏实实的,把一个产品做到满足用户的高频刚需,这样的产品才能留下来。

    你要问我路由器是不是入口,其实路由器也不是,我相信路由器只是智能家居其中一个的中心节点。

    智能家居的中心未必是一个设备,很有可能是几个设备,我回想起雷总邀请我加入小米的核心诉求是希望我能探索智能家居,路由器只是其中一个重心节点,后面再做的智能音箱。

    参与到智能音箱的项目后,我发现智能音箱是另外一个维度的智能家居中心。但现在我不太想强调它是一个中心,目前我们做产品的思路转化成为:我们可以把一个产品设想的很宏大,我们可以想象很多东西给它留很多未来的发展空间的设想,但最根本的你要先把它的高频刚需满足掉。

    智能音箱技术突破难点为NLP

    唐沐:再说技术的问题。当我们开始做智能音箱的时候,我发现主要有3个核心技术要准备好:一个是ASR、一个是NLP、一个是TTS。ASR是语音转文字的技术,语音识别技术;NLP是自然语言理解技术;TTS是文字转语音,文字合成语音的技术,这三个技术基本上是智能音箱存在的一个基石,当这三个技术准备好了,智能音箱已经具备了横空出世的前提了。

    关于核心制约瓶颈,黄明明说的几个都是,有很多可以通过数据的积累,人工智能自我学习、自我进步去改善的。但我认为到目前为止,可能基本上目前我还没有看到有解决的很明确的路径,其实是NLP(自然语言理解)。很多时候目前我们在智能音箱里面呈现出来的人工智能,它有点像是一个简单的问答机,你提一个问题他给你一个回答,很多时候这种回答还是偏机械,离真正的人工智能还是有点距离。

    黄明明:看来大家的认知至少目前都是比较一致,最核心的目前难突破的还是在NLP这个领域,可能这一波我们所谓讲的深度神经网络基本上在NLP这个领域,我问了很多大牛,短期之内想要有突破是比较难。

    抛开大家都短期之内难以突破的NLP领域,我们以小米的小爱音箱为例,聊聊在技术方案的选择(包括软件、硬件,麦克风的阵列,远近场的定位、输入降噪,误唤醒等等)你认为做哪些选择,才能让产品有哪些特点和优势?

    唐沐:我们做智能音箱最棒的心得是广泛寻求合作。比如说我们在ASR领域有七八家合作伙伴,我们会把用户的query同时发给七八家合作伙伴,等他们全部都反馈给我们结果,我们再经过一个简单的判断算法,来决定选取谁的结果。我们自己在技术上花费精力最大的还是NLP,这是智能音箱的核心,也人工智能语音助手的核心。

    以小爱音箱为例,我们目前有两大看家本领,一个是对用户点歌query的理解,一个是对用户IoT控制的理解。我们发布音箱的时间比较久,收集到的query比较多,这会极大帮助我们更深入理解用户的诉求到底是什么。

    小米2C产品形态的“收敛点”远非硬件这么简单

    黄明明:正好唐沐这边你讲到很多方案,技术方案和很多外部的合作伙伴在合作。我也八卦一下,有媒体透露出小米目前也在跟亚马逊Alexa合作,并且有可能考虑整合或者是说和微软的小娜合作,推出咱们新的智能音箱的产品线,这个传闻是有没有点靠谱?如果是有这样的考虑,是不是意味着我们可能会花更多的力量在硬件的生产制造方面,软件方面我们也会和跟强有力的国外合作伙伴合作呢?

    唐沐:所有传言都是无风不起浪,谷歌、亚马逊、微软,这几家在我们发布智能音箱之后都找来了,他们更多看重小米在智能硬件领域里面的供应链优势跟性价比优势。

    但是大家也知道小米从来不是一个只甘心于做硬件终端的一家公司,所以我们在挑选合作伙伴的时候,一定也是在考虑在互联网领域合作共赢的可能性。其实目前都还在谈,我们不会只做硬件,而不碰里面的系统和背后的大脑的。

    黄明明:非常感谢唐沐兄的坦诚,也给我们爆了好多料,我只问了一个亚马逊,现在把谷歌都给爆出来了。我下面进入稍微挑战一点的问题,既然刚才提到了不光是跟国外的巨头,包括跟国内拥有海量内容甚至是垄断性的拥有海量内容的巨头,包括腾讯音乐、阿里这些,我们跟他的竞合态势也是回应我们今天的主题,产品之争还是内容之争?

    面对巨头竞争,合作共赢才能获得突破

    黄明明:现在市场上比较主流的一个声音,因为不管咱们刚才讲的语音的识别,语意的理解做的多好,最后用户关心的是我后面想要获取的内容,内容在巨头手里,咱们怎么应对?

    唐沐:我觉得答案一定还是合作共赢。小米虽然已经IPO,但我们内部还是认为自己是一个创业公司,我们永远没有办法有财力和BAT等一些互联网巨头比拼内容的采购。

    我认为其实各家公司都有各家公司擅长的地方,有各家公司的“基因”。比如就音乐而言,腾讯一定是有它的基因在的,否则TME也不会做这么大。所以我花了很大的精力去跟腾讯去谈合作,还能让大家都做各自擅长的事情:小米擅长是做硬件做系统,腾讯TME集团擅长做音乐,我们就强强联手一起合作就好了。

    一方面我们会和QQ音乐合作,一起为小爱音箱的用户提供相当大部分的免费音乐。另外,我们也愿意帮助QQ音乐以及背后的这些音乐版权公司去发展音乐会员,这个应该是两边都非常愿意看到的。

    另外,其实在合作的谈判过程当中,我也欣喜地看到在国内的内容产业也越来越良性发展,已经有非常非常大的用户群愿意去为好的内容买单,给了我们很大的信心。

    我们在小爱音箱每天的两三千万的query数里面看到,其中占60%、70%,甚至70%、80%的,都还是对内容的获取的query,关于对内容播放控制的query。这个可说明一点:其实语音内容必定是国内几乎所有智能音箱的核心诉求,并且是高频刚需。

    黄明明:我也赞同唐沐的说法:每家公司的基因不同,还是要合作,每个人把自己擅长做的好的事做到最好,还是有机会,未来的竞合环境到底怎么样,确实还是随着时间的推移,会有很多的变局。

    智能音箱要加屏幕还需解决在交互上的互斥矛盾点

    黄明明:我直接进入到下一个关于小米生态的问题,现在不管是亚马逊还是国内的其他竞品他们都在音箱里加入了屏幕的概念。我知道唐沐你是一个超级产品经理也是非常强调用户体验,智能音箱这个品类怎么看加入屏幕这个事情,小米的智能音箱会考虑加入屏幕这个事情吗?

    唐沐:其实关于智能音箱要不要带屏幕这个考虑,确实也有过很多次的思考,但目前还是有些矛盾点需要解决。比如说在我的设想当中,语音交互是一种远场交互,人和设备其实是可以间隔一定距离去直接做自然交互的。

    但从屏幕交互来看,从带多点触控的手持设备出现后就是一个近场交互,远场交互和近场交互在本质上有一些互斥。在音箱上面带屏幕,会把一个本来大家可以做远场交互的设备拉近,变成是一个要求人去做近场交互的设备,这两个东西出现在同一个设备上是有一点互斥。

    目前的竞争态势到达现在这个阶段的时候,我想我妄下定论可能会打脸,我也只能说到这里。我们会积极讨论或者是积极去准备一个带屏幕的音箱,因为通过长时间的观察,我们发现其实有屏幕对于语音交互的信息反馈来说还是比较有帮助的。

    黄明明:非常期待小米可能会有屏幕的智能音箱下一代产品的出现。小米的任何产品我们都离不开小米的生态,我不知道有些数字方不方便唐沐能够介绍一下,目前通过咱们小米的智能音箱互联互通的智能设备,有多少种类和数量?咱们用户在实际的调用频次,刚才你讲了内容可能是主要的调用频次,和其他的IoT,尤其智能家居调用的频次是什么样的比例?使用的黏性如何?

    唐沐:目前连接在小米IoT云上面的设备已经超过的一个亿,这一个多亿的设备它是连接在我们,它在过去小米做IoT四五年的时间里面去逐步积累起来的,智能音箱从去年刚刚出现的新事物,它的出现刚好把我们过去全部连接在互联网上的IoT设备做了一次更紧密的连接,它使得用户通过语音控制IoT设备的黏性大大增强。

    比如说其中有一个数据蛮有意思的,叫“连带购买率”。我们从很多用户反馈和数据里可以观察到,有更多小米IoT设备的用户会更倾向于购买小爱音箱,买了小爱音箱之后,日常控制IoT设备的频度和黏性都非常高。另外一个是说购买小爱音箱的用户,哪怕他一开始没有其他小米IoT设备,也更倾向于在买了小爱音箱之后一段时间里面积极购入小米其他IoT生态的产品。

    这使得我看到了一个希望,智能家居会比以往更加接近现实,更加落地。我们过去曾经做App去控制IoT设备,很多用户会认为其实它并没有改善人的生活体验,或者是说这些设备的操控体验,但是有了语音交互之后,很多用户会认为开灯关灯这么简单的操作频繁使用的操作,用语音控制简直是天作之合,并且很多人都养成了这样的习惯。

    黄明明:刚才提过了这个query数量排在第二,我相信你们一定会统计重复使用的频次和黏性,比如同一个用户连续在多长的时长之内养成用小米的智能音箱调用其他IoT设备的习惯,这样的比例有多高?

    我记得咱们那样时候刚认识聊天,投资机会里面看了一大批的所谓的智能家居的创业项目,那个最后我们得出一个很粗暴,但是很个直接的一个结论,用App去控制智能家居有点“滑稽”,比如说关一个灯还要拿起手机找到你的App,点开选择那个灯,再选择关闭,还不如直接下床关灯就完了。直到语音交互出现以后,我们认为确实是智能家居这波场景尤其是以语音交互为主的场景爆发起来非常令人兴奋的一个消息。

    扫地机器人可能是智能家居的下一个风口

    黄明明:很高兴今天唐沐兄弟又站在了最前沿,智能家居入口的最前沿。其实我记得在两年前我们天使会有一次聚会,正好和雷总,我记得在颐和园的湖边上,我们在快走的时候,我们也聊起过一个话题,除了智能音箱之外,小米生态里面还有哪些是最有可能成为IoT的入口?我非常看好另外一个产品是扫地机器人,我不知道你的看法是什么?

    我认为扫地机器人需要的有两个核心点。一个它是要快速,比如说SLAM算法要把用户居住的环境,不管是现在2D或者未来3D的架构,它全部会扫描清楚,把相关的数据存储在它的数据库里面。实际上也是一个对用户的家居、家庭居住情况等信息十分了解的一个机器人。第二,它的形态上包括和人的交互场景也比较多,比如说它是移动的,所以很有可能成为另一个非常重要的交互或者是流量的入口。

    一个是音箱,一个是机器人,都是我非常看好的领域,这两个领域小米都有自己的布局,我们也在这个领域持续看好的创业机会,想听听唐沐你的看法?

    唐沐:关于这点我们完全想到一块去了。我想其实目前小爱音箱只是人工智能助手的一个容器,未来这个助手会出现在很多的设备里面,我会为最终它的终极形态就是机器人。但讲出机器人的这个观点,其实很多用户不一定会认同,我们做产品,我们首先可以设想如果这个产品落户在千家万户之后,它一定可以怎样怎样,但是其实第一步是最难的,怎么样让它落地在千家万户。

    比如说用户得有什么样的实际需求才会花钱把它买到家里面?现在做机器人我觉得可能还是过于早,但是扫地机器人是我唯一看好的机器人形态。

    很多好莱坞电影已经把用户对于智能化理解的预期提高到无限高,以至于用户会觉得买回家的机器人是一个破玩意,甚至是一个垃圾,因为它比我们所了解的我们所曾经看到的电影里面的机器人差的太远了,机器人这个品类没法做,但是你在机器人前面加扫地两个字的时候是可以考虑的。

    我认为,其实在到达最终机器人形态之前,是有一个产品的演化路径。我认为要经过三大要素。

    首先是语意,声音的语意理解。AI音箱其实是搞定了AI语音的问题,它会收集非常多的query,让大脑去识别并且理解人的意图,但是其实AI视觉是下一个要攻克的领域,无论是通过家用摄像头还是通过扫地机器人,都可以收集到足够多的数据来训练大脑理解这些图像。第二是AI视觉的理解,第三就是它的行动部分、运动部分,这个部分的技术只要一具备,机器人形态出现就不远了。

    形象一点来说,AI音箱解决的是“机器人的嘴和耳朵”的问题,后面我们还需要解决“眼睛的问题”和“腿的问题”。终有一天,当用户习惯身边家里面有耳朵、有嘴、有眼睛这样的终端出现,他们会认为也许集合成一体的产品是有机会在家里面出现,是用户自己愿意拥有的。

    黄明明:感谢唐沐,我觉得大家在很多观点上惊人的一致,我们内部也讨论过关于机器人的项目,现阶段一切做成人形的所谓机器人形状的创业产品,都会第一眼被我们pass掉,就是因为用户通过好莱坞电影或者个人自然反应产生的期望值,都会远超我们现有产品能够达到的期望值。

    我最后再补充一句,从今天和唐沐的对话我非常兴奋,得到了非常大的干货和信息量。不管是IoT还是刚才跟唐沐讨论的,对真正的未来家庭机器人的理解,包括服务机器人的阶段性的往前走的步骤、计划和未来的展望,让人充满了极大的信心和乐趣和对未来的想象空间。

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